What is an outcome?
An outcome is one possible result of a market — such as Yes/No, or a specific candidate or team. Each outcome carries a probability, and predict.pm aligns the equivalent outcome across platforms.
- Has a probability
- Aligned across platforms
- Yes / No or per-winner
One real-world question, grouped across platforms
One platform's tradable version — holds the price
Outcomes inside a market
A market has one or more outcomes. A binary market has two (Yes / No); a “who wins” market has one per candidate or team. Each outcome carries a probability — its implied chance of happening.
Aligning outcomes across platforms
predict.pm aligns the equivalent outcome across platforms so that, for example, the same team winning sits in one row. Where a platform has no equivalent outcome, predict.pm shows a dash (—).
Reading the comparison
Each row is one outcome; each column is a platform. The numbers are probabilities on a 0–100 scale. When they differ, one platform is pricing the outcome more cheaply than another — which is where the best price and arbitrage opportunities appear.
Compare the odds yourself
See the same event priced across Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur.
Learn more
Frequently asked questions
What is an outcome?
An outcome is one possible result of a market — such as Yes/No, or a specific candidate or team. Each outcome carries a probability, and predict.pm aligns the equivalent outcome across platforms.
Why don't all platforms show every outcome?
Platforms list markets differently — one may offer an outcome another doesn't. predict.pm shows a dash (—) where a platform has no equivalent outcome.
What does the probability mean?
It is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening, shown on a 0–100 scale. Comparing it across platforms reveals where an outcome is cheaper.