What is a market?
A market is a single tradable question on a prediction platform. The market is where the probability (price) lives. Equivalent markets from different platforms are grouped under one event.
- Holds the probability
- Grouped under an event
- 0–100 scale
One real-world question, grouped across platforms
One platform's tradable version — holds the price
Market vs event
An event is the real-world question grouped across platforms (for example, “Who wins the World Series?”). A market is one platform's specific tradable version of it. Each event aggregates one or more markets per platform.
Where the probability lives
The market is where the price (probability) lives. predict.pm reads each market's price live from its platform's API and normalizes it to a 0–100 probability so markets from different platforms are directly comparable.
How markets are grouped
predict.pm uses an LLM to match the equivalent markets across Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur and place them under one event. From there, each market's outcomes are aligned so the prices line up in a single side-by-side grid.
Compare the odds yourself
See the same event priced across Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a market?
A market is a single tradable question on a prediction platform. The market is where the probability (price) lives. Equivalent markets from different platforms are grouped under one event.
How is a market different from an event?
An event is the real-world question grouped across platforms; a market is one platform's specific tradable version of it. An event aggregates one or more markets per platform.
Where do market prices come from?
Each market's price is read live from its platform's API and normalized to a 0–100 probability in the predict.pm UI.