How to find arbitrage with predict.pm
Arbitrage in prediction markets happens when the same outcome is priced differently on two platforms. Because predict.pm lines up the same outcome across Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur, a price gap is visible at a glance — buy where it's cheap, and you may lock in an edge.
- Cross-platform gaps
- Best price highlighted
- Not risk-free
What is arbitrage?
Arbitrage is exploiting a price difference for the same thing in two places. In prediction markets, if one platform implies a 56% chance of an outcome and another implies 54%, the same outcome is effectively cheaper on one side.
How predict.pm surfaces it
predict.pm matches the same event across platforms and aligns each outcome into one row. Comparing the columns reveals where a platform prices an outcome lower than the others — the gap that may be an arbitrage opportunity.
Worked example
Say “Yankees to win” shows 56% on Polymarket, 54% on Kalshi and 55% on Futuur. The cheapest place to back the Yankees is Kalshi at 54%. predict.pm highlights the best price so you don't have to check each platform by hand.
Risks & caveats
Arbitrage is not risk-free. Fees, slippage, liquidity, currency differences and how each platform resolves a market can erode or eliminate the edge. Always confirm the terms on each platform before trading. predict.pm is an independent comparison tool, currently in beta, and does not provide financial advice.
Compare the odds yourself
See the same event priced across Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur.
Learn more
Frequently asked questions
What is prediction-market arbitrage?
Arbitrage is when the same outcome is priced differently on two platforms, creating a potential edge — subject to fees, slippage and resolution risk.
How does predict.pm help find arbitrage?
predict.pm lines up the same outcome across Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur, so when one platform prices it lower than another, the gap is visible at a glance — letting you buy where it's cheap.
Is arbitrage risk-free?
No. Real-world fees, slippage, liquidity, currency differences and how each platform resolves the market can erode or eliminate the edge. Always check the terms on each platform.
Which platforms are compared?
Polymarket, Kalshi and Futuur.